# Will Bitcoin break down or run to $97K next?

Bitcoin held $81,000 after a flush to $79,750. Gareth Soloway maps the levels: $87,200 to open $95K–$97K, or $75,500 and $67,000 on a breakdown.

Source: https://nusantara4djoin.top/will-bitcoin-break-down/ · based on the channel [Gareth Soloway](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwTu6kD2igaLMpxswtcdxlg) · Video: [Bitcoin Came THIS Close to Breaking Down: $97K Next?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5p7VdWDV-E) · 2026-10-20

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## Key takeaways

- Bitcoin flushed to about $79,750 and closed back above the $81,000 support line.
- Above $87,200, three confluences point to $95,000–$97,000: a rising trend line, a measured move and prior pivot highs.
- A daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500, where Gareth Soloway would buy only 25% of a position.
- The rest of his planned buying sits in the $67,000 zone; he holds no swing position in Bitcoin inside the roughly $6,000 range.
- Ethereum has a heavy buy zone just below $2,000 and a $2,800 retest on a breakout; HBAR was a swing trade targeting near $0.10.

Bitcoin has not broken down yet, but it came close: price flushed to roughly $79,750 and closed back above the $81,000 support, leaving the bullish structure intact but unresolved. The decision point for crypto traders is simple — a daily close above $87,200 opens a run toward $95,000–$97,000, while a daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500 and then the $67,000 zone. That is the framework Gareth Soloway lays out in his latest Bitcoin technical analysis, and the same Coinbase account route he points viewers to for tier-one fee pricing is available through [this Coinbase registration link](https://coinbase.com/aff/verifiedinvesting).

## What happened at the $81,000 support line

Bitcoin hammered $81,000 again, dipped to about $79,750, and then recovered back above the line — a failed breakdown rather than a confirmed one. That sequence matters because the level has now been tested repeatedly and each close back above it keeps the bullish structure alive. At the same time, Bitcoin has been hanging in there while the AI trade and the Nasdaq slide, which is a relative-strength signal worth noting for anyone trading crypto against equities. Gareth is explicit that he holds no swing position in Bitcoin, long or short, while price sits inside a range of roughly $6,000 between the two key levels. In practice, the middle of that range is where whipsaws happen and where a trader without a plan gives back gains.

## The three factors lining up near $95,000 to $97,000

Above $87,200, three separate technical factors converge in the $95,000–$97,000 area, which is why that zone is the logical upside target rather than a random round number.

1. A rising trend line that currently projects near $91,000 and climbs over time — Gareth notes it could carry the target into late November.
2. A measured move off the consolidation, which projects into the $96,000–$97,000 region.
3. Prior pivot highs sitting in the same $95,000–$97,000 band, confirming the confluence.

The sequence is what counts: the trend line is the first test, the measured move sets the objective, and the old pivot highs act as resistance that must be absorbed. The upside scenario only counts above $87,200 — below that level, none of these targets are active.

## The bear case below $81,000 and the staged buy plan

A daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500, and that is where Gareth would commit only 25% of a planned position rather than going all in. The remaining capital is reserved for the $67,000 zone, which he describes as the area where he loads the rest. He has said publicly, including to Crypto Banter, that he would not go all in at $75,500 — the staged approach exists precisely because a single level can fail. He also maintains that the cycle low is in until proven otherwise, which is a stance, not a guarantee: a daily close below $81,000 is the first evidence that would challenge it, and losing the lower zones would challenge it further. For crypto traders, the practical takeaway is that both the bull and bear maps are pre-defined, so no decision has to be made in the heat of a candle.

## Why a written game plan beats emotional trading

Traders without a game plan get whipsawed, and the current Bitcoin range is a textbook environment for it. A plan fixes three things before entry: the level that triggers the trade, the size committed at each level, and the level that invalidates the idea. Gareth's own structure follows that logic — 25% at $75,500, the rest at $67,000, upside targets at $95,000–$97,000 only above $87,200. Emotion enters when a position is open without pre-set levels, because every tick becomes a reason to act. Writing the levels down, and sizing so that a stop-out is survivable, keeps the decision mechanical. This is also the answer to the common complaint that emotional trading is the real problem: most traders do not lack discipline, they lack a documented plan to be disciplined about.

## Ethereum and HBAR setups on the same map

Ethereum is trading in a range with a heavy buy zone just below $2,000 and a $2,800 retest if price breaks out to the upside. The structure mirrors Bitcoin: a defined floor where accumulation makes sense and a defined resistance where a breakout would confirm strength. HBAR was a swing trade taken with Smart Money Crypto members on a retrace to the scene of the crime — the prior breakdown area — with a target near $0.10. Altcoins generally follow Bitcoin's direction, so the Bitcoin levels at $81,000 and $87,200 remain the primary filter: an altcoin long is a much better bet with Bitcoin above $87,200 than with Bitcoin pressing a support that has already been tested several times.

## Common questions from traders watching these levels

The most frequent pushback is about the exchange rather than the chart: fees and spreads on Coinbase are widely described as expensive, and the tier-one pricing offer is aimed directly at that complaint, including for accounts that have been idle for 30 days or that originally signed up under someone else's link. A second recurring question is how to short Bitcoin or other coins on Coinbase — spot platforms are not built for that, so directional short exposure usually requires derivatives or a different venue, and the levels in this analysis are the same either way. A third theme is subscription cost: viewers ask how to follow the full game plan when a paid service is out of reach, and the honest answer is that the free levels — $81,000, $87,200, $75,500, $67,000, $95,000–$97,000 — are the actionable part and can be traded with discipline alone. Finally, several viewers were surprised that Gareth holds no Bitcoin position at all; that is consistent with a range-bound market where the risk-reward is poor in the middle and only improves at the edges.

## Useful links

- [Coinbase tier-one fee pricing via Verified Investing](https://coinbase.com/aff/verifiedinvesting)
- https://www.VerifiedInvesting.com

## Bottom line

Bitcoin survived a test of $81,000 and the bullish structure is intact, but the market is still trapped in a roughly $6,000 range where the middle offers no edge. The actionable map is binary: above $87,200, three confluences target $95,000–$97,000; below $81,000 on a daily close, $75,500 and then $67,000 become the staged buy zones. Ethereum's sub-$2,000 buy zone and $2,800 breakout retest, plus the HBAR swing trade toward $0.10, follow the same risk-defined logic. The analysis comes from Gareth Soloway, whose chart breakdowns on his channel are the source for these levels — and if you want tier-one fees on the exchange he uses, you can [sign up through the Verified Investing Coinbase link](https://coinbase.com/aff/verifiedinvesting).

## Questions & answers

**What are the key Bitcoin levels to watch right now?**

The two decision levels are $81,000 on the downside and $87,200 on the upside. A daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500 and then $67,000, while a daily close above $87,200 activates the $95,000–$97,000 target zone built from a rising trend line, a measured move and prior pivot highs.

**Why does Gareth Soloway hold no Bitcoin position in this range?**

Bitcoin is trading inside a range of roughly $6,000 between $81,000 and $87,200, and the middle of a range offers poor risk-reward. He prefers to wait for the edges — either a confirmed breakout above $87,200 or a drop into the $75,500 and $67,000 buy zones.

**How would a trader short Bitcoin if Coinbase is a spot exchange?**

Spot exchanges like Coinbase are designed for buying and selling the underlying asset, not for opening short positions. Directional short exposure typically requires derivatives or a different venue, and position sizing should assume the stop is hit rather than rely on the platform to protect the trade.

**Is the crypto cycle low still considered to be in?**

Gareth's stance is that the cycle low is in until proven otherwise, which means the burden of proof sits with the bears. A daily close below $81,000 would be the first challenge to that view, and a sustained move into the $67,000 zone would challenge it much more seriously.